Trump Rolls the Dice
President Trump has no game plan, let alone an exit strategy.
Instead, Trump called for the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the regime. It turned out badly the last time we did this. In 1991, President George H. W. Bush urged Iraq’s Shiites and Kurds to rise against Saddam Hussein. They did. We did not support them. They were slaughtered. So far it looks like Iran’s people aren’t taking the bait.
We now see that Trump’s ‘unpredictable policies’ follow a predictable pattern: he achieves tactical surprise by attacking negotiating partners just as talks appear to be moving forward. Just hours before the bombing began, Oman’s foreign minister had announced significant progress in US-Iran nuclear negotiations. Instead of testing that progress, Trump went to war.
But why? One explanation may be domestic politics. Arcane technical concessions emerging from negotiations, enrichment levels, stockpile caps, inspections, are difficult to present as dramatic victories. A bombing campaign is easier to sell than centrifuge limits.
But the deeper explanation may lie elsewhere. I cannot escape the conclusion that Israel dragged the United States into this war. Secretary of State Rubio said as much; . "we knew Israel was about to attack, thus forcing Iran to retaliate." Therefore, we struck first. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to shape American decision making when Iran is involved.
A successful US-Iran agreement would have reduced tensions across the region and weakened the urgency of Israel’s long-standing narrative of immediate danger. It is therefore reasonable to conclude that Israeli preferences determined the timing and scale of this war.
President Trump, however, appears increasingly over his head in prosecuting the war. His initial justification – without evidence and to the disbelief of most professional observers -- was to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon supposedly only days away and developing an intercontinental missile. How does he square this with his bragging that the US strikes six months ago “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. Three days into the war, Trump’s objectives changed: now he calls for regime change.
Trump just discovered the old adage “you can’t surrender to an airplane.” He has no clearly defined war aims, no stated conditions for success, and no visible exit strategy. Without defined end points, wars do not conclude. They expand. Now Trump talks of a long war and US ground troops in Iran. Remember the slogan “no more forever wars?”
The Gulf states have seen their worst nightmare become reality. Israel has dragged them, along with the US, into a war with Iran. Confidence in the United States has eroded. The Arab world sees in this war confirmation of its belief that Israel manipulates US power to support Israeli regional hegemony. Other countries that depend on Israel and the United States should tread cautiously.
History is unforgiving to leaders who confuse impulse with strategy. And history is even less forgiving to nations that allow themselves to be dragged into wars they did not need, for objectives they never clearly defined. The bill for such wars is like a bar tab, it’s always much bigger than expected.